Various functions have been used to fit the shape of the cycle and/or its various phases. Stewart and Panofsky (1938) proposed a single function for the full cycle that was the product of a power law for the initial rise and an exponential for the decline. They found the four parameters (starting time, amplitude, exponent for the rise, and time constant for the decline) that give the best fit for each cycle. Nordemann (1992) fit both the rise and the decay with exponentials that each required three parameters – an amplitude, a time constant, and a starting time. Elling and Schwentek (1992) also fit the full cycle but with a modified F-distribution density function which requires five parameters. Hathaway et al. (1994) suggested yet another function – similar to that of Stewart and Panofsky (1938) but with a fixed (cubic) power law and a Gaussian for the decline. This function of timeA, a starting time t0, a rise time b, and an asymmetry parameter c. The average cycle is well fit with A = 193, b = 54, c = 0.8, and t0 = 4 months prior to minimum. This fit to the average cycle is shown in Figure 25. Hathaway et al. (1994) found that good fits to most cycles could be obtained with a fixed value for the parameter c and a parameter b that is allowed to vary with the amplitude – leaving a function of just two parameters – amplitude and starting time.
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