7 Solar Cycle Predictions

Predicting the solar cycle is indeed very difficult. A cursory examination of the sunspot record reveals a wide range of cycle amplitudes (Figure 2View Image). Over the last 24 cycles the average amplitude (in terms of the 13-month-smoothed monthly averages of the daily sunspot number) was about 114. Over the last 400 years the cycle amplitudes have varied widely – from basically zero through the Maunder Minimum to the two small cycles of the Dalton Minimum at the start of the 19th century (amplitudes of 49.2 and 48.7) to the recent string of large cycles (amplitudes of 151.8, 201.3, 110.6, 164.5, 158.5, and 120.8). In addition to the changes in the amplitude of the cycle, there are changes in cycle length and cycle shape as discussed in Section 4.

 7.1 Predicting an ongoing cycle
 7.2 Predicting future cycle amplitudes based on cycle statistics
 7.3 Predicting future cycle amplitudes based on geomagnetic precursors
 7.4 Predicting future cycle amplitudes based on dynamo theory

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