The concept of radiative forcing has been found to be a useful tool in analysing and predicting the response of surface temperature to imposed radiative perturbations. This is because experiments with general circulation models (GCMs) of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system have found that, approximately, the change in globally averaged equilibrium surface temperature, Tg, is linearly related to the radiative forcing:
Tg = RF
where is the “climate sensitivity parameter”. has been found to be fairly insensitive to the nature of the perturbation and to lie in the range 0.3 1.0 K (Wm–2)–1. Thus a calculation of the radiative forcing due to a particular perturbant gives a first-order indication of the potential magnitude of its effect on surface temperature without the need for costly GCM runs. Note that incorporated into are various atmospheric feedback processes. For example, as the climate warms the atmosphere can hold more water vapour; the latter is a strong greenhouse gas and thus increases the initial warming.
The large, factor 3, range in the value of given above represents the spread of values given by different GCMs. This gives an indication of the uncertainties in climate prediction. It should be noted, however, that for each particular GCM the range of found using different sources of radiative forcing is much narrower. This suggests that, while absolute predictions are subject to large uncertainty, the forecast of the relative effects of different factors is more reliable.
It has been found that the value of , and thus the usefulness of the radiative forcing concept, is more robust if, instead of using the instantaneous change in net flux at the top of the atmosphere, RF is defined at the tropopause with the stratosphere first allowed to adjust to the imposed changes. Thus a formal definition of radiative forcing, as used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the change in net flux at the tropopause after allowing stratospheric temperatures to adjust to radiative equilibrium (but with surface and tropospheric temperatures held fixed). The effects of the stratospheric adjustment are complex as can be illustrated by the case of changes in stratospheric ozone: an increase in ozone masks the lower atmosphere from solar ultraviolet, i.e. reducing the net flux at the tropopause and thus RF. However, the presence of ozone in the lower stratosphere increases the downward infrared emission (and thus RF) both directly through the 9.6 m band and also indirectly through the increase in stratospheric temperatures which it produces. Whether the net effect is positive or negative depends on whether the shortwave or longwave effect dominates and this is determined by the vertical distribution of the ozone change.
The direct effect of an increase in total solar irradiance is to increase the radiative forcing. The heating of the stratosphere by the additional irradiance will enhance this by increasing the downward emission of thermal radiation. However, the sign of the radiative forcing due to any solar-induced increases in ozone is not clear – published estimates show both positive and negative values – because of the uncertainties in the distribution of the ozone change (see Section 5.5).
Figure 19 shows the RF values deduced for the period 1750 to 2005 for a range of different factors. The largest component, 1.66 Wm–2, is due to the increase in carbon dioxide with other well-mixed greenhouse gases contributing a further 0.98 Wm–2. The other components are all of magnitude a few tenths of a Wm–2. For example, aerosol particles (mainly the result of industrial emissions of sulphur dioxide) have produced a RF of – 0.5 Wm–2, negative because they enhance the planetary albedo. Also shown is a value of – 0.7 Wm–2 (with large uncertainty) for the “cloud albedo effect” of aerosol. This represents the process whereby an increase in aerosol concentration produces more cloud condensation nuclei so that clouds tend to be composed of a higher number density of smaller droplets which increases albedo (see Section 7). Note that the error bars in Figure 19 do not represent statistical ranges of uncertainty but just the ranges of values published in peer-reviewed scientific literature. The figure also gives an indication of the “level of scientific understanding” (LOSU) for each effect which is a subjective analysis intended to indicate whether the scientific processes involved were perceived to be complete and well-understood.
The solar contribution is assessed to be in the range 0.06 – 0.30 Wm–2. Note that when calculating solar radiative forcing it is necessary to scale the total solar irradiance at the Earth by a factor taking into account geometric considerations as well as the planetary albedo. Thus the RF due to a change in TSI of 1 Wm–2 is about 1/6 Wm–2, or a change in TSI of 0.7 Wm–2 since 1750 is equivalent to RF = 0.12 Wm–2. The actual variations in TSI over the past few centuries is very uncertain (see Section 4.2) and the change in TSI depends crucially on the starting date (chosen as 1750 by the IPCC to represent the pre-industrial atmosphere): choice of earlier or later in the 18th century would have given an increased solar RF. Thus the value of solar radiative forcing in the IPCC figure is largely indicative. Taking a value of the climate sensitivity parameter of 0.6 K (Wm–2)–1 suggests that a global average surface warming of less than 0.1 K since 1750 could be ascribed to the Sun. However, the IPCC gives the assignation “very low” to the LOSU associated with solar radiative forcing, thereby acknowledging that there may be factors as yet unknown, or not fully understood, which may act to amplify (or even diminish) its effects.
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